Doomsday Clock: Two and a Half Minutes to Midnight

Is the world more dangerous than ever?

Today in Washington, D.C, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists announced its decision to move the infamous Doomsday Clock thirty seconds closer to doom: It is now two and a half minutes to midnight.

Each year since 1947, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has publicized the symbol of the Doomsday Clock to convey how close we are to destroying our civilization with dangerous technologies of our own making. As the Bulletin perceives our existential threats to grow, the minute hand inches closer to midnight.

For the past two years the Doomsday Clock has been set at three minutes to midnight.

But now, in the face of an increasingly unstable political climate, the Doomsday Clock is the closest to midnight it has been since 1953.

The clock struck two minutes to midnight in 1953 at the start of the nuclear arms race, but what makes 2017 uniquely dangerous for humanity is the variety of threats we face. Not only is there growing uncertainty with nuclear weapons and the leaders that control them, but the existential threats of climate change, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and biotechnology continue to grow.

As the Bulletin notes, “The challenge remains whether societies can develop and apply powerful technologies for our welfare without also bringing about our own destruction through misapplication, madness, or accident.”

Rachel Bronson, the Executive Director and publisher of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said: “This year’s Clock deliberations felt more urgent than usual. In addition to the existential threats posed by nuclear weapons and climate change, new global realities emerged, as trusted sources of information came under attack, fake news was on the rise, and words were used by a President-elect of the United States in cavalier and often reckless ways to address the twin threats of nuclear weapons and climate change.”

Lawrence Krauss, a Chair on the Board of Sponsors, warned viewers that “technological innovation is occurring at a speed that challenges society’s ability to keep pace.” While these technologies offer unprecedented opportunities for humanity to thrive, they have proven difficult to control and thus demand responsible leadership.

Given the difficulty of controlling these increasingly capable technologies, Krauss discussed the importance of science for informing policy. Scientists and groups like the Bulletin don’t seek to make policy, but their research and evidence must support and inform policy. “Facts are stubborn things,” Krauss explained, “and they must be taken into account if the future of humanity is to be preserved. Nuclear weapons and climate change are precisely the sort of complex existential threats that cannot be properly managed without access to and reliance on expert knowledge.”

The Bulletin ended their public statement today with a strong message: “It is two and a half minutes to midnight, the Clock is ticking, global danger looms. Wise public officials should act immediately, guiding humanity away from the brink. If they do not, wise citizens must step forward and lead the way.”

You can read the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ full report here.

Podcast: FLI 2016 – A Year In Review

For FLI, 2016 was a great year, full of our own success, but also great achievements from so many of the organizations we work with. Max, Meia, Anthony, Victoria, Richard, Lucas, David, and Ariel discuss what they were most excited to see in 2016 and what they’re looking forward to in 2017.

AGUIRRE: I’m Anthony Aguirre. I am a professor of physics at UC Santa Cruz, and I’m one of the founders of the Future of Life Institute.

STANLEY: I’m David Stanley, and I’m currently working with FLI as a Project Coordinator/Volunteer Coordinator.

PERRY: My name is Lucas Perry, and I’m a Project Coordinator with the Future of Life Institute.

TEGMARK: I’m Max Tegmark, and I have the fortune to be the President of the Future of Life Institute.

CHITA-TEGMARK: I’m Meia Chita-Tegmark, and I am a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute.

MALLAH: Hi, I’m Richard Mallah. I’m the Director of AI Projects at the Future of Life Institute.

KRAKOVNA: Hi everyone, I am Victoria Krakovna, and I am one of the co-founders of FLI. I’ve recently taken up a position at Google DeepMind working on AI safety.

CONN: And I’m Ariel Conn, the Director of Media and Communications for FLI. 2016 has certainly had its ups and downs, and so at FLI, we count ourselves especially lucky to have had such a successful year. We’ve continued to progress with the field of AI safety research, we’ve made incredible headway with our nuclear weapons efforts, and we’ve worked closely with many amazing groups and individuals. On that last note, much of what we’ve been most excited about throughout 2016 is the great work these other groups in our fields have also accomplished.

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve sat down with our founders and core team to rehash their highlights from 2016 and also to learn what they’re all most looking forward to as we move into 2017.

To start things off, Max gave a summary of the work that FLI does and why 2016 was such a success.

TEGMARK: What I was most excited by in 2016 was the overall sense that people are taking seriously this idea – that we really need to win this race between the growing power of our technology and the wisdom with which we manage it. Every single way in which 2016 is better than the Stone Age is because of technology, and I’m optimistic that we can create a fantastic future with tech as long as we win this race. But in the past, the way we’ve kept one step ahead is always by learning from mistakes. We invented fire, messed up a bunch of times, and then invented the fire extinguisher. We at the Future of Life Institute feel that that strategy of learning from mistakes is a terrible idea for more powerful tech, like nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence, and things that can really alter the climate of our globe.

Now, in 2016 we saw multiple examples of people trying to plan ahead and to avoid problems with technology instead of just stumbling into them. In April, we had world leaders getting together and signing the Paris Climate Accords. In November, the United Nations General Assembly voted to start negotiations about nuclear weapons next year. The question is whether they should actually ultimately be phased out; whether the nations that don’t have nukes should work towards stigmatizing building more of them – with the idea that 14,000 is way more than anyone needs for deterrence. And – just the other day – the United Nations also decided to start negotiations on the possibility of banning lethal autonomous weapons, which is another arms race that could be very, very destabilizing. And if we keep this positive momentum, I think there’s really good hope that all of these technologies will end up having mainly beneficial uses.

Today, we think of our biologist friends as mainly responsible for the fact that we live longer and healthier lives, and not as those guys who make the bioweapons. We think of chemists as providing us with better materials and new ways of making medicines, not as the people who built chemical weapons and are all responsible for global warming. We think of AI scientists as – I hope, when we look back on them in the future – as people who helped make the world better, rather than the ones who just brought on the AI arms race. And it’s very encouraging to me that as much as people in general – but also the scientists in all these fields – are really stepping up and saying, “Hey, we’re not just going to invent this technology, and then let it be misused. We’re going to take responsibility for making sure that the technology is used beneficially.”

CONN: And beneficial AI is what FLI is primarily known for. So what did the other members have to say about AI safety in 2016? We’ll hear from Anthony first.

AGUIRRE: I would say that what has been great to see over the last year or so is the AI safety and beneficiality research field really growing into an actual research field. When we ran our first conference a couple of years ago, they were these tiny communities who had been thinking about the impact of artificial intelligence in the future and in the long-term future. They weren’t really talking to each other; they weren’t really doing much actual research – there wasn’t funding for it. So, to see in the last few years that transform into something where it takes a massive effort to keep track of all the stuff that’s being done in this space now. All the papers that are coming out, the research groups – you sort of used to be able to just find them all, easily identified. Now, there’s this huge worldwide effort and long lists, and it’s difficult to keep track of. And that’s an awesome problem to have.

As someone who’s not in the field, but sort of watching the dynamics of the research community, that’s what’s been so great to see. A research community that wasn’t there before really has started, and I think in the past year we’re seeing the actual results of that research start to come in. You know, it’s still early days. But it’s starting to come in, and we’re starting to see papers that have been basically created using these research talents and the funding that’s come through the Future of Life Institute. It’s been super gratifying. And seeing that it’s a fairly large amount of money – but fairly small compared to the total amount of research funding in artificial intelligence or other fields – but because it was so funding-starved and talent-starved before, it’s just made an enormous impact. And that’s been nice to see.

CONN: Not surprisingly, Richard was equally excited to see AI safety becoming a field of ever-increasing interest for many AI groups.

MALLAH: I’m most excited by the continued mainstreaming of AI safety research. There are more and more publications coming out by places like DeepMind and Google Brain that have really lent additional credibility to the space, as well as a continued uptake of more and more professors, and postdocs, and grad students from a wide variety of universities entering this space. And, of course, OpenAI has come out with a number of useful papers and resources.

I’m also excited that governments have really realized that this is an important issue. So, while the White House reports have come out recently focusing more on near-term AI safety research, they did note that longer-term concerns like superintelligence are not necessarily unreasonable for later this century. And that they do support – right now – funding safety work that can scale toward the future, which is really exciting. We really need more funding coming into the community for that type of research. Likewise, other governments – like the U.K. and Japan, Germany – have all made very positive statements about AI safety in one form or another. And other governments around the world.

CONN: In addition to seeing so many other groups get involved in AI safety, Victoria was also pleased to see FLI taking part in so many large AI conferences.

KRAKOVNA: I think I’ve been pretty excited to see us involved in these AI safety workshops at major conferences. So on the one hand, our conference in Puerto Rico that we organized ourselves was very influential and helped to kick-start making AI safety more mainstream in the AI community. On the other hand, it felt really good in 2016 to complement that with having events that are actually part of major conferences that were co-organized by a lot of mainstream AI researchers. I think that really was an integral part of the mainstreaming of the field. For example, I was really excited about the Reliable Machine Learning workshop at ICML that we helped to make happen. I think that was something that was quite positively received at the conference, and there was a lot of good AI safety material there.

CONN: And of course, Victoria was also pretty excited about some of the papers that were published this year connected to AI safety, many of which received at least partial funding from FLI.

KRAKOVNA: There were several excellent papers in AI safety this year, addressing core problems in safety for machine learning systems. For example, there was a paper from Stuart Russell’s lab published at NIPS, on cooperative IRL. This is about teaching AI what humans want – how to train an RL algorithm to learn the right reward function that reflects what humans want it to do. DeepMind and FHI published a paper at UAI on safely interruptible agents, that formalizes what it means for an RL agent not to have incentives to avoid shutdown. MIRI made an impressive breakthrough with their paper on logical inductors. I’m super excited about all these great papers coming out, and that our grant program contributed to these results.

CONN: For Meia, the excitement about AI safety went beyond just the technical aspects of artificial intelligence.

CHITA-TEGMARK: I am very excited about the dialogue that FLI has catalyzed – and also engaged in – throughout 2016, and especially regarding the impact of technology on society. My training is in psychology; I’m a psychologist. So I’m very interested in the human aspect of technology development. I’m very excited about questions like, how are new technologies changing us? How ready are we to embrace new technologies? Or how our psychological biases may be clouding our judgement about what we’re creating and the technologies that we’re putting out there. Are these technologies beneficial for our psychological well-being, or are they not?

So it has been extremely interesting for me to see that these questions are being asked more and more, especially by artificial intelligence developers and also researchers. I think it’s so exciting to be creating technologies that really force us to grapple with some of the most fundamental aspects, I would say, of our own psychological makeup. For example, our ethical values, our sense of purpose, our well-being, maybe our biases and shortsightedness and shortcomings as biological human beings. So I’m definitely very excited about how the conversation regarding technology – and especially artificial intelligence – has evolved over the last year. I like the way it has expanded to capture this human element, which I find so important. But I’m also so happy to feel that FLI has been an important contributor to this conversation.

CONN: Meanwhile, as Max described earlier, FLI has also gotten much more involved in decreasing the risk of nuclear weapons, and Lucas helped spearhead one of our greatest accomplishments of the year.

PERRY: One of the things that I was most excited about was our success with our divestment campaign. After a few months, we had great success in our own local Boston area with helping the City of Cambridge to divest its $1 billion portfolio from nuclear weapon producing companies. And we see this as a really big and important victory within our campaign to help institutions, persons, and universities to divest from nuclear weapons producing companies.

CONN: And in order to truly be effective we need to reach an international audience, which is something Dave has been happy to see grow this year.

STANLEY: I’m mainly excited about – at least, in my work – the increasing involvement and response we’ve had from the international community in terms of reaching out about these issues. I think it’s pretty important that we engage the international community more, and not just academics. Because these issues – things like nuclear weapons and the increasing capabilities of artificial intelligence – really will affect everybody. And they seem to be really underrepresented in mainstream media coverage as well.

So far, we’ve had pretty good responses just in terms of volunteers from many different countries around the world being interested in getting involved to help raise awareness in their respective communities, either through helping develop apps for us, or translation, or promoting just through social media these ideas in their little communities.

CONN: Many FLI members also participated in both local and global events and projects, like the following we’re about  to hear from Victoria, Richard, Lucas and Meia.

KRAKOVNA: The EAGX Oxford Conference was a fairly large conference. It was very well organized, and we had a panel there with Demis Hassabis, Nate Soares from MIRI, Murray Shanahan from Imperial, Toby Ord from FHI, and myself. I feel like overall, that conference did a good job of, for example, connecting the local EA community with the people at DeepMind, who are really thinking about AI safety concerns like Demis and also Sean Legassick, who also gave a talk about the ethics and impacts side of things. So I feel like that conference overall did a good job of connecting people who are thinking about these sorts of issues, which I think is always a great thing.  

MALLAH: I was involved in this endeavor with IEEE regarding autonomy and ethics in autonomous systems, sort of representing FLI’s positions on things like autonomous weapons and long-term AI safety. One thing that came out this year – just a few days ago, actually, due to this work from IEEE – is that the UN actually took the report pretty seriously, and it may have influenced their decision to take up the issue of autonomous weapons formally next year. That’s kind of heartening.

PERRY: A few different things that I really enjoyed doing were giving a few different talks at Duke and Boston College, and a local effective altruism conference. I’m also really excited about all the progress we’re making on our nuclear divestment application. So this is an application that will allow anyone to search their mutual fund and see whether or not their mutual funds have direct or indirect holdings in nuclear weapons-producing companies.

CHITA-TEGMARK:  So, a wonderful moment for me was at the conference organized by Yann LeCun in New York at NYU, when Daniel Kahneman, one of my thinker-heroes, asked a very important question that really left the whole audience in silence. He asked, “Does this make you happy? Would AI make you happy? Would the development of a human-level artificial intelligence make you happy?” I think that was one of the defining moments, and I was very happy to participate in this conference.

Later on, David Chalmers, another one of my thinker-heroes – this time, not the psychologist but the philosopher – organized another conference, again at NYU, trying to bring philosophers into this very important conversation about the development of artificial intelligence. And again, I felt there too, that FLI was able to contribute and bring in this perspective of the social sciences on this issue.

CONN: Now, with 2016 coming to an end, it’s time to turn our sites to 2017, and FLI is excited for this new year to be even more productive and beneficial.

TEGMARK: We at the Future of Life Institute are planning to focus primarily on artificial intelligence, and on reducing the risk of accidental nuclear war in various ways. We’re kicking off by having an international conference on artificial intelligence, and then we want to continue throughout the year providing really high-quality and easily accessible information on all these key topics, to help inform on what happens with climate change, with nuclear weapons, with lethal autonomous weapons, and so on.

And looking ahead here, I think it’s important right now – especially since a lot of people are very stressed out about the political situation in the world, about terrorism, and so on – to not ignore the positive trends and the glimmers of hope we can see as well.

CONN: As optimistic as FLI members are about 2017, we’re all also especially hopeful and curious to see what will happen with continued AI safety research.

AGUIRRE: I would say I’m looking forward to seeing in the next year more of the research that comes out, and really sort of delving into it myself, and understanding how the field of artificial intelligence and artificial intelligence safety is developing. And I’m very interested in this from the forecast and prediction standpoint.

I’m interested in trying to draw some of the AI community into really understanding how artificial intelligence is unfolding – in the short term and the medium term – as a way to understand, how long do we have? Is it, you know, if it’s really infinity, then let’s not worry about that so much, and spend a little bit more on nuclear weapons and global warming and biotech, because those are definitely happening. If human-level AI were 8 years away… honestly, I think we should be freaking out right now. And most people don’t believe that, I think most people are in the middle it seems, of thirty years or fifty years or something, which feels kind of comfortable. Although it’s not that long, really, on the big scheme of things. But I think it’s quite important to know now, which is it? How fast are these things, how long do we really have to think about all of the issues that FLI has been thinking about in AI? How long do we have before most jobs in industry and manufacturing are replaceable by a robot being slotted in for a human? That may be 5 years, it may be fifteen… It’s probably not fifty years at all. And having a good forecast on those good short-term questions I think also tells us what sort of things we have to be thinking about now.

And I’m interested in seeing how this massive AI safety community that’s started develops. It’s amazing to see centers kind of popping up like mushrooms after a rain all over and thinking about artificial intelligence safety. This partnership on AI between Google and Facebook and a number of other large companies getting started. So to see how those different individual centers will develop and how they interact with each other. Is there an overall consensus on where things should go? Or is it a bunch of different organizations doing their own thing? Where will governments come in on all of this? I think it will be interesting times. So I look forward to seeing what happens, and I will reserve judgement in terms of my optimism.

KRAKOVNA: I’m really looking forward to AI safety becoming even more mainstream, and even more of the really good researchers in AI giving it serious thought. Something that happened in the past year that I was really excited about, that I think is also pointing in this direction, is the research agenda that came out of Google Brain called “Concrete Problems in AI Safety.” And I think I’m looking forward to more things like that happening, where AI safety becomes sufficiently mainstream that people who are working in AI just feel inspired to do things like that and just think from their own perspectives: what are the important problems to solve in AI safety? And work on them.

I’m a believer in the portfolio approach with regards to AI safety research, where I think we need a lot of different research teams approaching the problems from different angles and making different assumptions, and hopefully some of them will make the right assumption. I think we are really moving in the direction in terms of more people working on these problems, and coming up with different ideas. And I look forward to seeing more of that in 2017. I think FLI can also help continue to make this happen.

MALLAH: So, we’re in the process of fostering additional collaboration among people in the AI safety space. And we will have more announcements about this early next year. We’re also working on resources to help people better visualize and better understand the space of AI safety work, and the opportunities there and the work that has been done. Because it’s actually quite a lot.

I’m also pretty excited about fostering continued theoretical work and practical work in making AI more robust and beneficial. The work in value alignment, for instance, is not something we see supported in mainstream AI research. And this is something that is pretty crucial to the way that advanced AIs will need to function. It won’t be very explicit instructions to them; they’ll have to be making decision based on what they think is right. And what is right? It’s something that… or even structuring the way to think about what is right requires some more research.

STANLEY: We’ve had pretty good success at FLI in the past few years helping to legitimize the field of AI safety. And I think it’s going to be important because AI is playing a large role in industry and there’s a lot of companies working on this, and not just in the US. So I think increasing international awareness about AI safety is going to be really important.

CHITA-TEGMARK: I believe that the AI community has raised some very important questions in 2016 regarding the impact of AI on society. I feel like 2017 should be the year to make progress on these questions, and actually research them and have some answers to them. For this, I think we need more social scientists – among people from other disciplines – to join this effort of really systematically investigating what would be the optimal impact of AI on people. I hope that in 2017 we will have more research initiatives, that we will attempt to systematically study other burning questions regarding the impact of AI on society. Some examples are: how can we ensure the psychological well-being for people while AI creates lots of displacement on the job market as many people predict. How do we optimize engagement with technology, and withdrawal from it also? Will some people be left behind, like the elderly or the economically disadvantaged? How will this affect them, and how will this affect society at large?

What about withdrawal from technology? What about satisfying our need for privacy? Will we be able to do that, or is the price of having more and more customized technologies and more and more personalization of the technologies we engage with… will that mean that we will have no privacy anymore, or that our expectations of privacy will be very seriously violated? I think these are some very important questions that I would love to get some answers to. And my wish, and also my resolution, for 2017 is to see more progress on these questions, and to hopefully also be part of this work and answering them.

PERRY: In 2017 I’m very interested in pursuing the landscape of different policy and principle recommendations from different groups regarding artificial intelligence. I’m also looking forward to expanding out nuclear divestment campaign by trying to introduce divestment to new universities, institutions, communities, and cities.

CONN: In fact, some experts believe nuclear weapons pose a greater threat now than at any time during our history.

TEGMARK: I personally feel that the greatest threat to the world in 2017 is one that the newspapers almost never write about. It’s not terrorist attacks, for example. It’s the small but horrible risk that the U.S. and Russia for some stupid reason get into an accidental nuclear war against each other. We have 14,000 nuclear weapons, and this war has almost happened many, many times. So, actually what’s quite remarkable and really gives a glimmer of hope is that – however people may feel about Putin and Trump – the fact is they are both signaling strongly that they are eager to get along better. And if that actually pans out and they manage to make some serious progress in nuclear arms reduction, that would make 2017 the best year for nuclear weapons we’ve had in a long, long time, reversing this trend of ever greater risks with ever more lethal weapons.

CONN: Some FLI members are also looking beyond nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence, as I learned when I asked Dave about other goals he hopes to accomplish with FLI this year.

STANLEY: Definitely having the volunteer team – particularly the international volunteers – continue to grow, and then scale things up. Right now, we have a fairly committed core of people who are helping out, and we think that they can start recruiting more people to help out in their little communities, and really making this stuff accessible. Not just to academics, but to everybody. And that’s also reflected in the types of people we have working for us as volunteers. They’re not just academics. We have programmers, linguists, people having just high school degrees all the way up to Ph.D.’s, so I think it’s pretty good that this varied group of people can get involved and contribute, and also reach out to other people they can relate to.

CONN: In addition to getting more people involved, Meia also pointed out that one of the best ways we can help ensure a positive future is to continue to offer people more informative content.

CHITA-TEGMARK: Another thing that I’m very excited about regarding our work here at the Future of Life Institute is this mission of empowering people to information. I think information is very powerful and can change the way people approach things: they can change their beliefs, their attitudes, and their behaviors as well. And by creating ways in which information can be readily distributed to the people, and with which they can engage very easily, I hope that we can create changes. For example, we’ve had a series of different apps regarding nuclear weapons that I think have contributed a lot to peoples knowledge and has brought this issue to the forefront of their thinking.

CONN: Yet as important as it is to highlight the existential risks we must address to keep humanity safe, perhaps it’s equally important to draw attention to the incredible hope we have for the future if we can solve these problems. Which is something both Richard and Lucas brought up for 2017.

MALLAH: I’m excited about trying to foster more positive visions of the future, so focusing on existential hope aspects of the future. Which are kind of the flip side of existential risks. So we’re looking at various ways of getting people to be creative about understanding some of the possibilities, and how to differentiate the paths between the risks and the benefits.

PERRY: Yeah, I’m also interested in creating and generating a lot more content that has to do with existential hope. Given the current global political climate, it’s all the more important to focus on how we can make the world better.

CONN: And on that note, I want to mention one of the most amazing things I discovered this past year. It had nothing to do with technology, and everything to do with people. Since starting at FLI, I’ve met countless individuals who are dedicating their lives to trying to make the world a better place. We may have a lot of problems to solve, but with so many groups focusing solely on solving them, I’m far more hopeful for the future. There are truly too many individuals that I’ve met this year to name them all, so instead, I’d like to provide a rather long list of groups and organizations I’ve had the pleasure to work with this year. A link to each group can be found at futureoflife.org/2016, and I encourage you to visit them all to learn more about the wonderful work they’re doing. In no particular order, they are:

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Future of Humanity Institute

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute

Center for the Study of Existential Risk

Ploughshares Fund

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

Open Philanthropy Project

Union of Concerned Scientists

The William Perry Project

ReThink Media

Don’t Bank on the Bomb

Federation of American Scientists

Massachusetts Peace Action

IEEE (Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers)

Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence

Center for Effective Altruism

Center for Applied Rationality

Foresight Institute

Leverhulme Center for the Future of Intelligence

Global Priorities Project

Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence

International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence

Partnership on AI

The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

The Future Society at Harvard Kennedy School

 

I couldn’t be more excited to see what 2017 holds in store for us, and all of us at FLI look forward to doing all we can to help create a safe and beneficial future for everyone. But to end on an even more optimistic note, I turn back to Max.

TEGMARK: Finally, I’d like – because I spend a lot of my time thinking about our universe – to remind everybody that we shouldn’t just be focused on the next election cycle. We have not decades, but billions of years of potentially awesome future for life, on Earth and far beyond. And it’s so important to not let ourselves get so distracted by our everyday little frustrations that we lose sight of these incredible opportunities that we all stand to gain from if we can get along, and focus, and collaborate, and use technology for good.

Effective Altruism and Existential Risks: a talk with Lucas Perry

What are the greatest problems of our time? And how can we best address them?

FLI’s Lucas Perry recently spoke at Duke University and Boston College to address these questions. Perry presented two major ideas in these talks – effective altruism and existential risk – and explained how they work together.

As Perry explained to his audiences, effective altruism is a movement in philanthropy that seeks to use evidence, analysis, and reason to take actions that will do the greatest good in the world. Since each person has limited resources, effective altruists argue it is essential to focus resources where they can do the most good. As such, effective altruists tend to focus on neglected, large-scale problems where their efforts can yield the greatest positive change.

Effective altruists focus on issues including poverty alleviation, animal suffering, and global health through various organizations. Nonprofits such as 80,000 Hours help people find jobs within effective altruism, and charity evaluators such as GiveWell investigate and rank the most effective ways to donate money. These groups and many others are all dedicated to using evidence to address neglected problems that cause, or threaten to cause, immense suffering.

Some of these neglected problems happen to be existential risks – they represent threats that could permanently and drastically harm intelligent life on Earth. Since existential risks, by definition, put our very existence at risk, and have the potential to create immense suffering, effective altruists consider these risks extremely important to address.

Perry explained to his audiences that the greatest existential risks arise due to humans’ ability to manipulate the world through technology. These risks include artificial intelligence, nuclear war, and synthetic biology. But Perry also cautioned that some of the greatest existential threats might remain unknown. As such, he and effective altruists believe the topic deserves more attention.

Perry learned about these issues while he was in college, which helped redirect his own career goals, and he wants to share this opportunity with other students. He explains, “In order for effective altruism to spread and the study of existential risks to be taken seriously, it’s critical that the next generation of thought leaders are in touch with their importance.”

College students often want to do more to address humanity’s greatest threats, but many students are unsure where to go. Perry hopes that learning about effective altruism and existential risks might give them direction. Realizing the urgency of existential risks and how underfunded they are – academics spend more time on the dung fly than on existential risks – can motivate students to use their education where it can make a difference.

As such, Perry’s talks are a small effort to open the field to students who want to help the world and also crave a sense of purpose. He provided concrete strategies to show students where they can be most effective, whether they choose to donate money, directly work with issues, do research, or advocate.

By understanding the intersection between effective altruism and existential risks, these students can do their part to ensure that humanity continues to prosper in the face of our greatest threats yet.

As Perry explains, “When we consider what existential risks represent for the future of intelligent life, it becomes clear that working to mitigate them is an essential part of being an effective altruist.”

Elon Musk’s Plan to Colonize Mars

In an announcement to the International Astronautical Congress on Tuesday, Elon Musk unveiled his Interplanetary Transport System (ITS). His goal: allow humans to colonize a city on Mars within the next 50 to 100 years.

Speaking to an energetic crowd in Guadalajara, Mexico, Musk explained that the alternative to staying on Earth, which is at risk of a “doomsday event,” is to “become a spacefaring civilization and a multi-planet species.” As he told Aeon magazine in 2014, “I think there is a strong humanitarian argument for making life multi-planetary in order to safeguard the existence of humanity in the event that something catastrophic were to happen.” Colonizing Mars, he believes, is one of our best options.

In his speech, Musk discussed the details of his transport system. The ITS, developed by SpaceX, would use the most powerful rocket ever built, and at 400 feet tall, it would also be the largest spaceflight system ever created. The spaceship would fit 100-200 people and would feature movie theaters, lecture halls, restaurants, and other fun activities to make the approximately three-month journey enjoyable. “You’ll have a great time,” said Musk.

Musk explained four key issues that must be addressed to make colonization of Mars possible: the rockets need to be fully reusable, they need to be able to refuel in orbit, there must be a way to harness energy on Mars, and we must figure out more efficient ways of traveling. If SpaceX succeeds in meeting these requirements, the rockets could travel to Mars and return to Earth to pick up more colonists for the journey. Musk explained that the same rockets could be used up to a dozen times, bringing more and more people to colonize the Red Planet.

Despite his enthusiasm for the ITS, Musk was careful to acknowledge that there are still many difficulties and obstacles in reaching this goal. Currently, getting to Mars would require an investment of about $10 billion, which is not affordable for most people today. However, Musk thinks that the reusable rocket technology could significantly decrease this cost. “If we can get the cost of moving to Mars to the cost of a median house price in the U.S., which is around $200,000, then I think the probability of establishing a self-sustaining civilization is very high,” Musk noted.

But this viability requires significant investment from both the government and the private sector. Musk explained, “I know there’s a lot of people in the private sector who are interested in helping fund a base on Mars and then perhaps there will be interest on the government sector side to also do that. Ultimately, this is going to be a huge public-private partnership.” This speech, and the attention it has garnered, could help make such investment and cooperation possible.

Many questions remain about how to sustain human life on Mars and whether or not SpaceX can make this technology viable, as even Musk admits. He explained, “This is a huge amount of risk, will cost a lot, and there’s a good chance we don’t succeed. But we’re going to try and do our best. […] What I really want to do here is to make Mars seem possible — make it seem as though it’s something that we could do in our lifetimes, and that you can go.”

Musk’s full speech can be found here.

Op-ed: Education for the Future – Curriculum Redesign

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“Adequately preparing for the future means actively creating it: the future is not the inevitable or something we are pulled into.”

What Should Students Learn for the 21st Century?

At the heart of ensuring the best possible future lies education. Experts may argue over what exactly the future will bring, but most agree that the job market, the economy, and society as a whole are about to see major changes.

Automation and artificial intelligence are on the rise, interactions are increasingly global, and technology is rapidly changing the landscape. Many worry that the education system is increasingly outdated and unable to prepare students for the world they’ll graduate into – for life and employability.

Will students have the skills and character necessary to compete for new jobs? Will they easily adapt to new technologies?

Charles Fadel, founder of the Center for Curriculum Redesign, considers six factors – three human and three technological – that will require a diverse set of individual abilities and competencies, plus an increased collaboration among cultures. In the following article, Fadel explains these factors and why today’s curriculum may not be sufficient to prepare students for the future.

 

Human Factors

First, there are three human factors affecting our future: (1) increased human longevity, (2) global connectivity, and (3) environmental stresses.

Increased Human Longevity

The average human lifespan is lengthening and will produce collective changes in societal dynamics, including better institutional memory and more intergenerational interactions.  It will also bring about increased resistance to change. This may also lead to economic implications, such as multiple careers over one’s lifespan and conflicts over resource allocation between younger and older generations. Such a context will require intergenerational sensitivity and a collective systems mindset in which each person balances his or her personal and societal needs.

Global Connectivity

The rapid increase in the world’s interconnectedness has had many compounding effects, including exponential increase in the velocity of the dissemination of information and ideas, with more complex interactions on a global basis. Information processing has already had profound effects on how we work and think. It also brings with it increased concerns and issues about data ownership, trust, and the overall attention to and reorganization of present societal structures. Thriving in this context will require tolerance of a diversity of cultures, practices, and world views, as well as the ability to leverage this connectedness.

Environmental Stresses

Along with our many unprecedented technological advances, human society is using up our environment at an unprecedented rate, consuming more of it and throwing more of it away. So far, our technologies have wrung from nature an extraordinary bounty of food, oil, and materials. Scientists calculate that humans use approximately “40 percent of potential terrestrial [plant] production” for themselves (Global Change, 2008). What’s more, we have been mining the remains of plants and animals from hundreds of millions of years ago in the form of fossil fuels in the relatively short period of a few centuries. Without technology, we would have no chance of supporting a population of one billion people, much less seven billion and climbing.

Changing dynamics and demographics will, by necessity, require greater cooperation and sensitivity among nations and cultures. Such needs suggest a reframing of notions of happiness beyond a country’s gross domestic product (a key factor used in analyses of cultural or national quality of life) (Revkin, 2005) and an expansion of business models to include collaboration with a shared spirit of humanity for collective well-being. It also demands that organizations possess an ability to pursue science with an ethical approach to societal solutions

Three Technology Factors

Three technology factors will also condition our future: (1) the rise of smart machines and systems, (2) the explosive growth of data and new media, and (3) the possibility of amplified humans.

The Rise of Smart Machines and Systems

While the creation of new technologies always leads to changes in a society, the increasing development and diffusion of smart machines—that is, technologies that can perform tasks once considered only executable by humans—has led to increased automation and ‘offshorability’ of jobs and production of goods. In turn, this shift creates dramatic changes in the workforce and in overall economic instability, with uneven employment. At the same time, it pushes us toward overdependence on technology—potentially decreasing individual resourcefulness. These shifts have placed an emphasis on non-automatable skills (such as synthesis and creativity), along with a move toward a do-it-yourself maker economy and a proactive human-technology balance (that is, one that permits us to choose what, when, and how to rely on technology).

The Explosive Growth of Data and New Media

The influx of digital technologies and new media has allowed for a generation of “big data” and brings with it tremendous advantages and concerns. Massive data sets generated by millions of individuals afford us the ability to leverage those data for the creation of simulations and models, allowing for deeper understanding of human behavioral patterns, and ultimately for evidence-based decision making.

At the same time, however, such big data production and practices open the door to privacy issues, concerns, and abuses. Harnessing these advantages, while mitigating the concerns and potential negative outcomes, will require better collective awareness of data, with skeptical inquiry and a watchfulness for potential commercial or governmental abuses of data.

The Possibility of Amplified Humans

Advances in prosthetic, genetic, and pharmacological supports are redefining human capabilities while blurring the lines between disability and enhancement. These changes have the potential to create “amplified humans.” At the same time, increasing innovation in virtual reality may lead to confusion regarding real versus virtual and what can be trusted. Such a merging shift of natural and technological requires us to reconceptualize what it means to be human with technological augmentations and refocus on the real world, not just the digital world.

Conclusion

Curricula worldwide have often been tweaked, but they have never been completely redesigned for the comprehensive education of knowledge, skills, character, and meta-learning.

21st century education

In a rapidly changing world, it is easy to get focused on current requirements, needs, and demands. Yet, adequately preparing for the future means actively creating it: the future is not the inevitable or something we are pulled into. There is a feedback loop between what the future could be and what we want it to be, and we have to deliberately choose to construct the reality we wish to experience. We may see global trends and their effects creating the ever-present future on the horizon, but it is up to us to choose to actively engage in co-constructing that future.

For more analysis of the question and implications for education, please see: http://curriculumredesign.org/our-work/four-dimensional-21st-century-education-learning-competencies-future-2030/

 

Note from FLI: Among our objectives is to inspire discussion and a sharing of ideas. As such, we post op-eds that we believe will help spur discussion within our community. Op-eds do not necessarily represent FLI’s opinions or views.

Effective Altruism 2016

The Effective Altruism Movement

Edit: The following article has been updated to include more highlights as well as links to videos of the talks.

How can we more effectively make the world a better place? Over 1,000 concerned altruists converged at the Effective Altruism Global conference this month in Berkeley, CA to address this very question. For two and a half days, participants milled around the Berkeley campus, attending talks, discussions, and workshops to learn more about efforts currently underway to improve our ability to not just do good in the world, but to do the most good.

Those who arrived on the afternoon of Friday, August 5 had the opportunity to mingle with other altruists and attend various workshops geared toward finding the best careers, improving communication, and developing greater self-understanding and self-awareness.

But the conference really kicked off on Saturday, August 6, with talks by Will MacAskill and Toby Ord, who both helped found the modern effective altruistism movement. Ord gave the audience a brief overview of the centuries of science and philosophy that provided the base for effective altruism. “Effective altruism is to the pursuit of good as the scientific revolution is to the pursuit of truth,” he explained. Yet, as he pointed out, effective altruism has only been a real “thing” for five years.

Will MacAskill

Will MacAskill introduced the conference and spoke of the success the EA movement has had in the last year.

Toby Ord speaking about the history of effective altruism.

Toby Ord spoke about the history of effective altruism.

 

MacAskill took the stage after Ord to highlight the movement’s successes over the past year, including coverage by such papers as the New York Times and the Washington Post. And more importantly, he talked about the significant increase in membership they saw this year, as well as in donations to worthwhile causes. But he also reminded the audience that a big part of the movement is the process of effective altruism. He said:

“We don’t know what the best way to do good is. We need to figure that out.”

For the rest of the two days, participants considered past charitable actions that had been most effective, problems and challenges altruists face today, and how the movement can continue to grow. There were too many events to attend them all, but there were many highlights.

Highlights From the Conference

When FLI cofounder, Jaan Tallin, was asked why he chose to focus on issues such as artificial intelligence, which may or may not be a problem in the future, rather than mosquito nets, which could save lives today, he compared philanthropy to investing. Higher risk investments have the potential for a greater payoff later. Similarly, while AI may not seem like much of  threat to many people now, ensuring it remains safe could save billions of lives in the future. Tallin spoke as part of a discussion on Philanthropy and Technology.

Jaan Tallin speaking remotely about his work with EA efforts.

Jaan Tallin speaking remotely about his work with EA efforts.

Martin Reese, a member of FLI’s Science Advisory Board, argued that we are in denial of the seriousness of our risks. At the same time, he said that minimizing risks associated with technological advances can only be done “with great difficulty.”  He encouraged EA participants to figure out which threats can be dismissed as science fiction and which are legitimate, and he encouraged scientists to become more socially engaged.

As if taking up that call to action, Kevin Esvelt talked about his own attempts to ensure gene drive research in the wild is accepted and welcomed by local communities. Gene drives could be used to eradicate such diseases as malaria, schistosomiasis, Zika, and many others, but fears of genetic modification could slow research efforts. He discussed his focus on keeping his work as open and accessible as possible, engaging with the public to allow anyone who might be affected by his research to have as much input as they want. “Closed door science,” he added, “is more dangerous because we have no way of knowing what other people are doing.”  A single misstep with this early research in his field could imperil all future efforts for gene drives.

Kevin Esvelt talks about his work with CRISPR and gene drives.

Kevin Esvelt talks about his work with CRISPR and gene drives.

That same afternoon, Cari Tuna, President of the Open Philanthropy Project, sat down with Will McAskill for an interview titled, “Doing Philosophy Better,” which focused on her work with OPP and Effective Altruism and how she envisions her future as a philanthropist. She highlighted some of the grants she’s most excited about, which include grants to Give Directly, Center for Global Development, and Alliance for Safety and Justice. When asked about how she thought EA could improve, she emphasized, “We consider ourselves a part of the Effective Altruism community, and we’re excited to help it grow.” But she also said, “I think there is a tendency toward overconfidence in the EA community that sometimes undermines our credibility.” She mentioned that one of the reasons she trusted GiveWell was because of their self reflection. “They’re always asking, ‘how could we be wrong?'” she explained, and then added, “I would really love to see self reflection become more of a core value of the effective altruism community.”

cari tuna

Cari Tuna interviewed by Will McAskill (photo from the Center for Effective Altruism).

The next day, FLI President, Max Tegmark, highlighted the top nine myths of AI safety, and he discussed how important it is to dispel these myths so researchers can focus on the areas necessary to keep AI beneficial. Some of the most distracting myths include arguments over when artificial general intelligence could be created, whether or not it could be “evil,” and goal-oriented issues. Tegmark also added that the best thing people can do is volunteer for EA groups.

During the discussion about the risks and benefits of advanced artificial intelligence, Dileep George, cofounder of Vicarious, reminded the audience why this work is so important. “The goal of the future is full unemployment so we can all play,” he said. Dario Amodei of OpenAI emphasized that having curiosity and trying to understand how technology is evolving can go a long way toward safety. And though he often mentioned the risks of advanced AI, Toby Ord, a philosopher and research fellow with the Future of Humanity Institute, also added, “I think it’s more likely than not that AI will contribute to a fabulous outcome.” Later in the day, Chris Olah, an AI researcher at Google Brain and one of the lead authors of the paper, Concrete Problems in AI Safety, explained his work as trying to build a bridge to futuristic problems by doing empirical research today.

Moderator Riva-Melissa Tez, Dario Amodei, George Dileep, and Toby Ord at the Risks and Benefits of Advanced AI discussion.

Moderator Riva-Melissa Tez, Dario Amodei, Dileep George, and Toby Ord at the Risks and Benefits of Advanced AI discussion. (Not pictured, Daniel Dewey)

FLI’s Richard Mallah gave a talk on mapping the landscape of AI safety research threads. He showed how there are many meaningful dimensions along which such research can be organized, how harmonizing the various research agendas into a common space allows us to reason about different kinds of synergies and dependencies, and how consideration of the white space in such representations can help us find both unknown knowns and unknown unknowns about the space.

Tara MacAulay, COO at the Centre for Effective Altruism, spoke during the discussion on “The Past, Present, and Future of EA.” She talked about finding the common values in the movement and coordinating across skill sets rather than splintering into cause areas or picking apart who is and who is not in the movement. She said, “The opposite of effective altruism isn’t ineffective altruism. The opposite of effective altruism is apathy, looking at the world and not caring, not doing anything about it . . . It’s helplessness. . . . throwing up our hands and saying this is all too hard.”

MacAulay also moderated a panel discussion called, Aggregating Knowledge, which was significant, not only for its thoughtful content about accessing, understanding, and communicating all of the knowledge available today, but also because it was an all-woman panel. The panel included Sarah Constantin, Amanda Askell, Julia Galef, and Heidi McAnnaly, who discussed various questions and problems the EA community faces when trying to assess which actions will be most effective. MacAulay summarized the discussion at the end when she said, “Figuring out what to do is really difficult but we do have a lot of tools available.” She concluded with a challenge to the audience to spend five minutes researching some belief they’ve always had about the world to learn what the evidence actually says about it.

aggregating knowledge

Sarah Constantin, Amanda Askell, Julia Galef, Heidi McAnnaly, and Tara MacAulay (photo from the Center for Effective Altruism).

Prominent government leaders also took to the stage to discuss how work with federal agencies can help shape and impact the future. Tom Kalil, Deputy Director for Technology and Innovation highlighted how much of today’s technology, from cell phones to Internet, got its start in government labs. Then, Jason Matheny, Director of IARPA, talked about how delays in technology can actually cost millions of lives. He explained that technology can make it less costly to enhance moral developments and that, “ensuring that we have a future counts a lot.”

Tom Kalil speaks about the history of government research and its impact on technology.

Tom Kalil speaks about the history of government research and its impact on technology.

Jason Matheny talks about how employment with government agencies can help advance beneficial technologies.

Jason Matheny talks about how employment with government agencies can help advance beneficial technologies.

Robin Hanson, author of The Age of Em, talked about his book and what the future will hold if we continue down our current economic path while the ability to create brain emulation is developed. He said that if creating ems becomes cheaper than paying humans to do work, “that would change everything.” Ems would completely take over the job market and humans would be pushed aside. He explained that some people might benefit from this new economy, but it would vary, just as it does today, with many more people suffering from poverty and fewer gaining wealth.

Robin Hanson talks to a group about how brain emulations might take over the economy and what their world will look like.

Robin Hanson talks to a group about how brain emulations might take over the economy and what their world will look like.

 

Applying EA to Real Life

Lucas Perry, also with FLI, was especially impressed by the career workshops offered by 80,000 Hours during the conference. He said:

“The 80,000 Hours workshops were just amazing for giving new context and perspective to work. 80,000 Hours gave me the tools and information necessary to reevaluate my current trajectory and see if it really is best of all possible paths for me and the world.

In the end, I walked away from the conference realizing I had been missing out on something so important for most of my life. I found myself wishing that effective altruism, and organizations like 80,000 Hours, had been a part of my fundamental education. I think it would have helped immensely with providing direction and meaning to my life. I’m sure it will do the same for others.”

In total, 150 people spoke over the course of those two and a half days. MacAskill finally concluded the conference with another call to focus on the process of effective altruism, saying:

“Constant self-reflection, constant learning, that’s how we’re going to be able to do the most good.”

 

View from the conference.

View from the conference.