The Windfall Trust aims to alleviate the economic impact of AI-driven joblessness by building a global, universally accessible social safety net

Image: Adapted from Scott Santens, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Advancing AI capabilities and the economy

As artificial intelligence progresses toward human-level capabilities, many of today’s AI companies’ goals are to create AI that is better than humans at all tasks, including all economically valuable work—something widely referred to as artificial general intelligence (AGI). 

Whether this vision appears achievable or not, many of the smartest engineers and experts, backed by some of the most well resourced companies in human history, are aggressively pursuing this goal—and are explicit about it. If they succeed in developing human level Artificial Intelligence, it’s likely that we’ll see widespread and unprecedented joblessness within our lifetime, raising critical questions about economic stability and the future of human employment. 

Preparing for a new economic paradigm

Governments and regulators may have tools, such as reskilling programs and temporary safety nets, to address short-term national economic challenges of job displacement. But in a world where AI rapidly results in widespread joblessness with limited new job creation, the conventional tools are likely to be insufficient. We must develop new tools and ideas to cushion this economic disruption and protect workers. 

Given the global and highly interconnected world economy, AI-induced joblessness will inevitably transcend borders. If advanced economies are not equipped to deal with AI’s impacts, how will governments lacking robust tax bases or social welfare systems manage the economic fallout of widespread rapid job displacement? The global scale and complexity of this challenge demand solutions that address the financial consequences of job loss on a scale and of a scope that meets the immensity of the challenge.

Recognizing these challenges, we believe it is imperative to start preparing for the kinds of transformative shifts that could break existing paradigms and fundamentally reshape our economies and societies. 

A new economic institution design for the age of AI

The Windfall Clause is a proposed mechanism wherein AI companies legally pre-commit to broadly investing profits into cushioning the economically disruptive impacts of AI. This clause is only triggered if their profits exceed a high predetermined threshold, such as a single company generating 1% of the world’s GDP (presently, even the most profitable company in the world is several hundreds of billions of dollars away from this threshold). But how would such profits be reinvested into society? What if there existed a fund that belonged to all of humanity—where everyone born on earth would be entitled to a share in its corpus? Could we seed such a fund with a small portion of the enormous wealth generated by AI to create a robust model for universal basic wealth?

The Windfall Trust aspires to research and create such an entity. The Future of Life Institute has been researching a roadmap for a fully fleshed-out design for such a trust, encompassing legal and financial structures, investment principles, payout algorithms, governance frameworks, and funding plans. Its overarching goal is to foster economic stability by distributing income from the trust, starting with the most economically vulnerable, to establish a universal human income floor.

Nothing of this scale has been attempted before, and there are many uncertainties in bringing the Windfall Trust to life. However, we are committed to building an economic institution to meet this challenge and ensure that the immense promised benefits of AI are available to all. 

As of late 2024, we are in the process of spinning out this work into its own non-profit entity. The Windfall Trust is building a team of interdisciplinary experts to continue to build on this vision and operationalize it into reality.

Contact: anna@futureoflife.org